Pre-tourney Rankings
St. Mary's
West Coast
2015-16
Overall
Predictive Rating+10.9#39
Expected Predictive Rating+11.5#40
Pace57.7#348
Improvement-7.5#348

Offense
Total Offense+8.9#19
First Shot+8.0#14
After Offensive Rebound+0.9#102
Layup/Dunks+7.4#3
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#287
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.5#27
Freethrows-2.8#332
Improvement-6.1#349

Defense
Total Defense+2.0#117
First Shot+2.0#107
After Offensive Rebounds+0.0#184
Layups/Dunks+0.4#164
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#290
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#168
Freethrows+3.2#27
Improvement-1.4#247
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
#1 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 2 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 4 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 6 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
NCAA Tourney Bid 74.9% n/a n/a
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 74.9% n/a n/a
Average Seed 10.2 n/a n/a
.500 or above 0.0% n/a n/a
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four25.0% n/a n/a
First Round63.2% n/a n/a
Second Round28.2% n/a n/a
Sweet Sixteen7.5% n/a n/a
Elite Eight2.4% n/a n/a
Final Four0.7% n/a n/a
Championship Game0.2% n/a n/a
National Champion0.0% n/a n/a

Projected Seeding 11 seed  


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 16, 2015 239   Manhattan W 89-63 95%     1 - 0 +18.4 +16.1 +3.0
  Nov 22, 2015 89   Stanford W 78-61 77%     2 - 0 +20.4 +17.2 +5.4
  Nov 29, 2015 110   Cal St. Bakersfield W 94-59 83%     3 - 0 +36.0 +24.9 +11.1
  Dec 04, 2015 235   UC Davis W 81-67 95%     4 - 0 +6.6 +11.0 -4.3
  Dec 06, 2015 98   UC Irvine W 70-60 78%     5 - 0 +12.7 +13.9 +0.8
  Dec 12, 2015 23   @ California L 59-63 26%     5 - 1 +13.6 +3.1 +10.1
  Dec 14, 2015 204   Cal Poly W 93-63 93%     6 - 1 +24.3 +25.5 +2.3
  Dec 16, 2015 342   Southern Utah W 92-36 99%     7 - 1 +38.7 +19.6 +26.1
  Dec 21, 2015 202   San Francisco W 74-52 93%     8 - 1 1 - 0 +16.5 +5.0 +14.3
  Dec 23, 2015 232   @ Santa Clara W 81-59 87%     9 - 1 2 - 0 +20.6 +21.9 +2.8
  Dec 28, 2015 282   Utah Valley W 65-50 97%     10 - 1 +4.2 -12.1 +16.7
  Dec 31, 2015 50   BYU W 85-74 63%     11 - 1 3 - 0 +18.4 +18.6 +0.2
  Jan 02, 2016 263   San Diego W 79-46 96%     12 - 1 4 - 0 +23.8 +11.8 +14.5
  Jan 07, 2016 208   @ Loyola Marymount W 73-48 85%     13 - 1 5 - 0 +24.8 +11.8 +17.4
  Jan 09, 2016 129   @ Pepperdine L 64-67 71%     13 - 2 5 - 1 +2.3 +2.6 -0.7
  Jan 14, 2016 218   Pacific W 78-62 94%     14 - 2 6 - 1 +9.6 +13.6 -1.8
  Jan 21, 2016 27   Gonzaga W 70-67 51%     15 - 2 7 - 1 +13.6 +12.6 +1.5
  Jan 23, 2016 203   Portland W 89-74 93%     16 - 2 8 - 1 +9.3 +16.3 -6.2
  Jan 30, 2016 218   @ Pacific W 68-65 86%     17 - 2 9 - 1 +2.4 +0.6 +2.0
  Feb 04, 2016 50   BYU L 59-70 63%     17 - 3 9 - 2 -3.6 -9.2 +5.4
  Feb 06, 2016 263   @ San Diego W 60-43 90%     18 - 3 10 - 2 +13.6 -1.9 +17.9
  Feb 11, 2016 129   Pepperdine L 63-69 86%     18 - 4 10 - 3 -6.5 -1.4 -5.9
  Feb 13, 2016 208   Loyola Marymount W 68-62 93%     19 - 4 11 - 3 +0.0 -3.7 +4.2
  Feb 18, 2016 203   @ Portland W 74-72 84%     20 - 4 12 - 3 +2.1 -0.7 +2.9
  Feb 20, 2016 27   @ Gonzaga W 63-58 30%     21 - 4 13 - 3 +21.4 +4.2 +17.8
  Feb 25, 2016 232   Santa Clara W 75-50 94%     22 - 4 14 - 3 +17.8 +12.0 +10.4
  Feb 27, 2016 202   @ San Francisco W 84-72 84%     23 - 4 15 - 3 +12.3 +13.8 -0.7
  Mar 01, 2016 134   Grand Canyon W 73-64 86%     24 - 4 +8.2 +3.1 +5.5
  Mar 05, 2016 208   Loyola Marymount W 60-48 90%     25 - 4 +8.9 -1.0 +12.8
  Mar 07, 2016 129   Pepperdine W 81-66 79%     26 - 4 +17.4 +24.6 -4.4
  Mar 08, 2016 27   Gonzaga L 75-85 40%     26 - 5 +3.5 +21.3 -19.6
Projected Record 26.0 - 5.0 15.0 - 3.0




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected West Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 100.0 100.0 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 100.0 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 100.0    100.0
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total 100.0% 100.0 100.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 74.9% 74.9% 10.2 0.4 2.9 10.7 29.0 31.6 0.4 25.1 74.9%
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 74.9% 0.0% 74.9% 10.2 0.4 2.9 10.7 29.0 31.6 0.4 25.1 74.9%